New York Times Tries to Buck-up Democrat Spirits

By Brad O'Leary

We all know that anything can happen between now and November's midterm elections. Currently, however, Republicans are poised to reap massive gains in Congress. The numbers don't lie, and the numbers haven't looked this good since 1994 for the GOP. Short of Pelosi and Reid appearing on primetime television in late October pinning down Osama bin Laden while President Obama waterboards him, it's a safe bet that November 2, 2010 will not be a day Democrats celebrate anything.

Just don't tell the New York Times.

On June 24, the Times published a piece that doesn't come close to passing the laugh test.

Titled "Democrats See Signs of Hope in Job Trends" (you're probably already laughing, but wait, it gets better) the article gave a passing mention to the fact that most signs point toward Republican gains this fall, and then made the claim that three of the most competitive states for congressional races (Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio) also happen to be "on the leading edge of the nation's [job] recovery."

For proof, the Times references a recent state-by-state economic trend analysis completed by Moody's Analytics. Though after viewing the Moody's report, one wonders if the Times bothered to read it.

According to Moody's, Pennsylvania's "Employment Growth Rank" – which takes into account job growth from 2009 projected through 2011 – is 35th in the United States. New York's is 30th. Ohio's "Employment Growth Rank" is 37th. All three of these "leading edge of the nation's recovery" states, as reported by the Times, are ranked in the bottom half.

That's strike one against the Times.

Now let's look at some more meaningful electoral barometers – barometers the Times ignores.

According to recent polling data from Quinnipiac University, a solid majority of registered voters in all three states disapprove of the job their Democratic governor is doing. In New York, 62% disapprove of Democrat David Patterson's job performance as Governor. In Ohio, 55% disapprove of Democratic Governor Ted Strickland's performance. In Pennsylvania, 51% disapprove of the job Democratic Governor Ed Rendell is doing.

Governor "job performance" has traditionally been a great indicator of how voters in a particular state think things are going economically.

That's strike two.

Recent polls also show that a majority of registered voters in all three states say their state is headed in the wrong direction. Nearly 65% of New York voters say their state is headed in the wrong direction (Siena College Poll, June 7-9); 59% of Ohio voters say their state is headed in the wrong direction (Quinnipiac, June 22-27); and 55% of Pennsylvania voters say their state is headed on the wrong track (Franklin and Marshall Poll, May 3-9).

That's strike three.

Again, anything can happen between now and Election Day. However, it's a safe bet that voters in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania won't be flocking to the polls to keep the Democratic status quo in place because their states are overflowing with jobs.

Again, please don't tell the New York Times.